Microclimate refugia are transient in stable old forests, Pacific Northwest, USA

An issue of global concern is how climate change forcing is transmitted to ecosystems. Forest ecosystems in mountain landscapes may demonstrate buffering and perhaps decoupling of long-term rates of temperature change, because vegetation, topography, and local winds (e.g., cold air pooling) influence temperature and potentially create microclimate refugia (areas which are relatively protected from climate change). We tested these ideas by comparing 45-year regional rates of air temperature change to unique temporal and spatial air temperature records in the understory of regionally representative stable old forest at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. The 45-year seasonal patterns and rates of warming were similar throughout the forested landscape and matched regional rates observed at 88 standard meteorological stations in Oregon and Washington, indicating buffering, but not decoupling of long-term climate change rates. Consideration of the energy balance explains these results: while shading and airflows produce spatial patterns of temperature, these processes do not counteract global increases in air temperature driven by increased downward, longwave radiation forced by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In some months, the 45-year warming in the forest understory equaled or exceeded spatial differences of air temperature between the understory and the canopy or canopy openings and was comparable to temperature change over 1,000 m elevation, while in other months there has been little change. These findings have global implications because they indicate that microclimate refugia are transient, even in this forested mountain landscape.